Merrill said in the last poll taken by KAET-TV and the Cronkite School, McCain held a seven point lead over Obama.
However, Merrill says, the poll was conducted before the economic crisis unfolded. He expects the financial meltdown to shrink McCain's lead in Arizona by two to three points.
"I think McCain is still ahead," said Merrill. "But it could be as little as four points. It's a lot closer than people think."
Merrill claims the two population groups that will make the difference in Arizona are hispanics and voters under the age of 30.
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